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Opinion: India imports the overwhelming majority of its crude, and half of it once transited the Strait of Hormuz. That it weathered the 2026 Iran crisis without rationing is a vindication of a decade of diversification and reserve-building. But complacency now would be dangerous — with the rupee near 96 to the dollar, Brent restless, and a weak monsoon emerging as a rival macro threat, India must press harder on reserves, renewables, domestic output and diversified routes.

As of July 18, 2026, US forces have struck Iran for a seventh straight night while Tehran retaliated against American allies, hitting Kuwait's power and water infrastructure and targeting Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar and Iraq. The Strait of Hormuz, gateway for roughly a fifth of the world's oil, sits at the centre of the crisis.

The rupee slid past 96 per dollar as Brent crude jumped on Strait of Hormuz tensions, forcing the RBI to step into the forex market. The episode exposes how dependent India's currency remains on the price of oil it must import.

June inflation breached the RBI's 4% target and oil risks are rising, but with core demand soft and growth strong, a supply-driven spike is not the moment for the central bank to reverse course. Patience, not a knee-jerk hike, is the disciplined call.

Indian equities swung in mid-July 2026 as the Sensex dropped 561 points on 14 July amid surging oil and the Middle East flare-up, then recovered the next session as pressure on the Strait of Hormuz eased. The rupee traded near 96 to the dollar.

US strikes on Iran intensified in mid-July 2026 and Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. Iranian missiles struck two UAE oil tankers, killing an Indian crew member and injuring eight, the UAE Defence Ministry said, prompting India to summon Tehran's envoy.

India's retail inflation rose to a 17-month high of 4.38% in June 2026, breaching the RBI's 4% target for the first time since January 2025. Food, transport and services costs led the rise, with oil and a patchy monsoon adding fresh risk to the outlook.

India completed a 3-1 series victory over England at Headingley, ending an 18-year wait for a Test series win in England. Jasprit Bumrah finished with 34 wickets and the Player of the Series award as India confirmed their standing as the world's top-ranked Test side.